Saturday, 27 May, 2017

OPEC panel looking at deepening, extending oil cuts

With global oil stocks still too high and US supply recovering faster than anticipated Brent is seen averaging $54 per barrel in 2017 and $56 per barrel in 2018 Oil drops on rising US crude inventory, defies expected supply cut extension | Reuters
Laurie Berry | 19 May, 2017, 19:02

Russian Federation reduced its oil output by 300,000 barrels per day, as stipulated in the Vienna deal signed between OPEC and non-OPEC countries, Russia's Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on May 18.

Brent crude slipped by 17 cents to $52.04 a barrel, while the U.S. crude oil traded at 16 cents lower than its last close at $48.91 per barrel, reported Reuters.

"The question is whether that 1.8 million barrel cut is enough to cut that overhang". USA crude oil lost $1.02 to reach a low of $48.05 was last trading 55 cents a barrel lower at $48.52.

At Multi Commodity Exchange, crude oil for delivery in current month was trading higher by Rs 24, or 0.75 per cent, to Rs 3,227 per barrel, in a business turnover of 3,156 lots.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that crude inventories USOILC=ECI fell 1.8 million barrels for the week to May 12, to 520.8 million barrels.

In a note, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said the time it takes production cuts to impact on stocks was one of the major challenges for OPEC.

Trump aims to strengthen ties in Saudi Arabia visit
His visit is highly symbolic, as he looks to fix America's relationship with its closest Arab ally. "Israel, too, is looking for reassurance".

That hope, despite OPEC's consistently strong adherence to its pledged output reduction and the non-OPEC bloc's steadily improving discipline since January, has been tamped down by anxiety over the slower-than-anticipated fall in bloated oil inventories in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries and fear that US oil production is on a trajectory to nullify the coordinated restraint of the OPEC/non-OPEC producers. The premium usually indicates expectations of oversupply and hence shows growing doubts that OPEC will be able to eradicate the glut.

The world market for oil was almost balanced during the first quarter, though USA oil production and Middle East gains complicate the issue, the IEA said.

Oil prices have gained support from reduced output but high inventories and rising supply from producers not participating in the accord have limited the rally, pressing the case for extending the curbs.

On the demand side, The IEA reiterated its forecast rate of growth at 1.3 million bpd for this year, to a total 97.9 million barrels, although over the first half of the year demand will grow more slowly because of India, the U.S., Germany, and Turkey.

"For the global crude markets, fundamental demand strength in the coming weeks may have to come from seasonal gains in refining runs in Europe and Asia, led by China - provided that product demand and refining margins remain healthy".

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