Tuesday, 19 February, 2019

Sterling drops after poll suggests hung United Kingdom parliament

Freda Brock | 04 June, 2017, 10:46

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn at a campaign rally.

Such a result would mean the Labour leader would have to be willing to enter negotiations with other political parties if he wished to enter Downing Street.

The YouGov findings contradicts other surveys during the campaign so far, suggesting Theresa May faces losing her majority rather than extending it.

The pound has risen almost 4% since May called a snap election for June, as investors bet a then-predicted landslide majority for May would result in a stronger hand in negotiating Britain's exit from the European Union.

The gains didn't last long, however, as a separate YouGov poll on Wednesday night showed the Conservatives had a slender 3 point lead over Labour.

The YouGov results suggest their team expect a higher turnout among young people, who are more likely to vote Labour, but if their projections are wrong the Conservatives will secure a comfortable win.

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The findings again weakened sterling which had earlier fallen nearly a cent against the US dollar on the YouGov model before rising on a Kantar poll which showed May's lead had increased to 10 percentage points.

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The latest model, which has been met with scepticism by both the Conservatives and Labour, was based on 50,000 interviews over the course of a week with voters brought in to form a panel.

What could influence the vote on June 8?

If this happened, the Conservatives would still be the biggest party - but they wouldn't have an overall majority.

Mrs May's decision to call an early election had provided a boost to the pound - with the currency shooting up from less than $1.26 to above $1.29 in one day and later creeping above the $1.30 mark.

YouGov acknowledged that its predictions were controversial and allowed for a wide margin of error, adding that the samples in each constituency were small.

Much has been made of Theresa May's dwindling lead in recent days but the poll shows Labour still have some way to go if they are to meet Jeremy Corbyn's target of victory.

Using new constituency-by-constituency modelling, the projection by pollsters YouGov said the party could lose 20 seats to end up with 310.

After falling 0.5% to a six-week low of $1.2770, sterling has regained ground to be slightly higher at $1.2866.


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