Sunday, 24 September, 2017

IEA raises forecast for global oil demand this year

US Distillate Inventories Rose for the 3rd Time in 5 Weeks Oil prices climb on stronger demand
Laurie Berry | 14 July, 2017, 15:25

Some of the biggest oil producers have opened up the taps in the past month, undermining the push to cut supply, according to the latest assessment from the International Energy Agency.

OPEC's compliance with cuts slumped to 78 percent last month from 95 percent in May as higher-than-allowed output from Algeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Iraq, the UAE and Venezuela offset strong compliance from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Angola, the IEA said.

"And success is judged over the whole period rather than in one month", the IEA said.

While the oil production benchmark in the budget was 2.2 million barrels per day (mbpd), Nigeria is now producing about 1.7mbpd of oil without condensate, and was still within the price band of $42.50 per barrel which the budget has.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are expected to be $2/b lower than Brent prices in 2017 and 2018.

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Floating stock is calculated by subtracting closely-held shares and restricted stock from a firm's total outstanding shares. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at the SEC website .

Over the past year, oil production in the U.S. has increased by more than 10% to 9.4 million bpd.

It said demand for OPEC´s crude was forecast to rise steadily through 2017 and reach 33.6 million bpd in the fourth quarter - up 1 million bpd on OPEC´s June output.

The IEA said the non-OPEC producers who volunteered to cut production were actually better at sticking with the deal in June. "We still are below the 1.8 million barrel a day benchmark set for us by OPEC", he said.

"A revised oil price forecast that is $2 to $4 per barrel lower for late 2017 and during 2018 than the prior forecast will make it less profitable for some USA producers to drill for oil", he said.

Legacy Reserves LP, Exco Resources Inc., Alta Mesa and EOG are among 34 oil producers that since 2015 have formed drillcos worth more than $2.05 billion. And Barclays is also gloomy - their analysts say forget oil prices moving back above $US50 a barrel this northern summer. Daily and monthly average prices could vary significantly from this forecast because global economic developments and geopolitical events in the coming months have the potential to push oil prices higher or lower than the current Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) price forecast. OPEC decided late previous year to reduce its output by 1.2 million barrels a day to 32.5 million starting January 1. However, lasting price movements could be limited over the next year because some USA tight oil producers have used financial instruments to guarantee a price above $50/b for their expected production.

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