Tuesday, 26 September, 2017

Dollar Looks Worse For Wear, Breakout Fails After Yellen Comments, Weak Inflation

Cautious Fed Lifts Global Stocks to Record High, Investors Eye Earnings Lift Consumer Inflation, Retail Sales Soft In June, Industry Solid
Laurie Berry | 15 July, 2017, 17:49

That, however, started to show-up on Friday morning when we got even more disappointing USA data.

Inflation is expected to remain at its highest level in almost four years, as rising prices on the back of the Brexit-hit pound continued to squeeze British households.

US two-year yields slid as well, down at 1.343 percent, from 1.355 percent before the data's release.

Wall Street ended with gains on Thursday, with the major indexes up between 0.1 and 0.2 percent, as stocks basked in comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen that the central bank's rate hikes could be gradual, given persistently low inflation despite an improving economy. That was below the 0.1% gain expected by economists. Instead, it stayed flat, and the inflation rate over the past 12 months moved further away from the Fed's 2% target, falling to 1.6% from 1.9% in May.

Shares lost some of their early momentum on Friday afternoon, but solid buying in the big four banks kept the market in the black, to cap off a week that saw the Australian dollar shoot to a 2017 high.

US Treasuries yields stayed below their recent peaks, with the 10-year yield at 2.352 per cent compared with 2.398 per cent marked on Friday, its loftiest level in nearly two months.

After surprisingly weak CPI inflation data, the dollar index sank to a new low of 95.186 Friday, the lowest since September of past year. From what we've seen of recent - both the European Central Bank and the BoJ have made efforts to talk-down their currencies and, if they're effective next week, this could bring a modicum of strength to the U.S. Dollar that would essentially amount to a retracement of the "bigger picture' bearish trend". "After their June rate hike, the Fed is seen watching inflation trends carefully before tightening policy again". MSCI's gauge of equity performance in 47 countries .MIWD00000PUS gained 0.65 percent, and its world index .WORLD rose 0.64 percent.

Cautious Fed Lifts Global Stocks to Record High, Investors Eye Earnings Lift

Traders will also be looking at the USA consumer price index (CPI) data as the next important inflection point with year-on-year inflation rate estimated to decline for a fourth consecutive month by 1.7 percent in June following a similar gain in May, it would also be the lowest since November 2016.

Most analysts expect Fed officials will lift rates one more time this year. It earlier fell to 2.279 percent, its lowest since June 30. The yield on the 30-year bond, or the long bond, TMUBMUSD30Y, -0.85% fell 3.1 basis points to 2.888%.

Spot gold gained 0.96 pct at $1,228.61 per ounce by 3:01 p.m. EDT (1901 GMT) after hitting $1,232.76.

The euro was up 0.37 percent against the greenback to $1.1437 and sterling was 1.07 percent higher at $1.3073, after hitting $1.3082, its highest since September 23, 2016. The contract finished the week up 1.5 percent, its first gain in six weeks.

Spot silver was more than 30¢ in the green, gaining 2% in early trading to reach $16/oz even. It was at $1.145 Friday.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 46 cents to settle at US$46.54 per barrel.

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