Tuesday, 26 September, 2017

Inflation and Retail Sales Continue to Disappoint

Dollar treads water, US inflation data awaited for Fed direction Cautious Fed Sends Stocks to Record Highs, Dollar Dips
Laurie Berry | 15 July, 2017, 07:16

In a bad year for the US Federal Reserve's inflation goal, Friday's consumer price index release will mark something of a milestone. Though the Fed prefers a separate commerce department price index, which will be released on August 1, Friday's data will give policy makers a window into how momentum is shaping up ahead of their July 25 to 26 policy meeting.

The Fed has a 2 per cent inflation target and tracks a measure which is now at 1.4 per cent.

"On the basis of June's data, it is getting harder for the Fed to continue claiming that this is a temporary drop-off", said Paul Ashworth, chief US economist at Capital Economics.

The euro was little changed at $1.1407, unable to draw much lift even as Germany's 10-year bund yield climbed back above the 0.50 percent threshold overnight on a report that the European Central Bank is likely to signal in September that its asset purchase programme will be gradually wound down next year.

"I think there was a window of opportunity. We're watching inflation very carefully in light of low readings". The cost of food also leveled off after five straight increases.

Larson loses pole to Truex after inspection
Johnson, the seven-time Cup champion, will start in the top five for the first time this season. "He's been a good teammate". This year, Larson has been leading the Monster Energy Series most of the year. "Well damn, we're starting second now".

The core rate rose 0.1% on the month compared with an expected increase of 0.2% with the year-on-year rate unchanged at 1.7% which was in line with expectations. Gov. Lael Brainard said the deterioration in consumer prices could give them pause on a rate hike this year.

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan also adopted a cautious stance on recent slowdown in U.S inflation and called for a gradual removal of policy accommodation in future. "At present, with a federal funds rate at a range of 100 to 125 basis points, I would like to see some greater evidence that we are making progress toward meeting our 2% inflation objective in the medium term", Kaplan wrote in an essay. Dollar-bullish investors struggled to find inspiration from Yellen's optimism during Thursday's trading session, with the Dollar Index edging towards 95.75.

Slow inflation and stagnant wage growth has baffled economists given the very low unemployment rate, but USA central bankers continue to say they expect inflation to rebound allowing them to raise the benchmark interest rate gradually.

The higher yielding Aussie and New Zealand dollars jumped, with the Australian dollar hitting a near 15-month high as risk appetite was robust with global stock markets hitting record highs and after dovish comments from global policymakers.

If the number comes in low, the reasons why will matter. "The weak trajectory of consumer spending at the end of second quarter adds some challenges to the third-quarter consumption outlook, which reinforces our view that growth will step down modestly in the current quarter", said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan in NY.

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