Четверг, 14 Декабря, 2017

Hurricanes Expected To Knock 100000 Jobs Off The Next Jobs Report

US Jobless Claims fall 12000 to 260000 US Jobless Claims Fell Last Week
Laurie Berry | 06 Октября, 2017, 15:26

Barclays chief economist Michael Gapen appeared on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday, two days before the September jobs report is released to discuss Harvey and Irma's impact on labor. In Texas, Harvey's unprecedented flooding left neighborhoods under water and temporarily knocked out a big chunk of US oil refining. Two weeks later, Irma cut power to at least 6.4 million customers and paralyzed tanker traffic. Fed Chair Janet Yellen cautioned last month that the hurricanes could "substantially" weigh on September job growth, but expected the effects would "unwind relatively quickly".

In August, U.S. firms added 156,000 workers to their payrolls. Payrolls tend to get a boost later from cleanup and reconstruction efforts following major storms or disasters.

The U.S. central bank said last month it expected "labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further".

The government's survey of households, which produces the unemployment rate, reflects the calendar week containing the 12th of the month; the separate survey of businesses and government agencies, which produces the payroll count and wage numbers, is for the pay period containing the 12th. Exports in the August were $195.3 billion, while imports came to $237.7 billion. They would follow on the heels of August's disappointing employment growth, which economists blamed on a seasonal quirk. The industries most concentrated in these affected areas include water transportation, oil and gas extraction and petroleum and coal production, among others.

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"The Labor Department has estimated claims for the island, though, and they might just have been much too conservative". The expectation is that the economy created around 100,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.4 percent, near a 16-year low. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4 percent in September, and average hourly wages are expected to rise 0.3 percent, according to Thomson Reuters.

The consensus forecast predicts that USA firms added 80,000 jobs in September, which would reflect a halving of the 6-month average pace of job growth, and is down by almost 100,000 from the average rate of monthly job growth of 176,000 for the year. The jump in claims was the biggest since Superstorm Sandy slammed into the Northeast and the volume of filings was the largest since April 2015.

Hurricane Maria, which devastated Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, won't affect this report.

"October will show a big rebound", said Carl Riccadonna, chief US economist for Bloomberg Intelligence in NY. "If you do get a weak number, you are going to be a pretty strong rebound in October and potentially in November", said Song.

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