Tuesday, 16 October, 2018

Iran sanctions could cost companies billions

Iran deal 'not dead', says France Trump's Threatened Sanctions Against Iran Could Cost US, European Firms Billions
Laurie Berry | 16 May, 2018, 23:12

He was speaking the day after US President Donald Trump pulled out of a 2015 deal that seeks to curtail Iran's nuclear weapons program.

USA crude slipped slightly as domestic production continues to surge. But analysts estimate Iranian oil production could drop by between 300,000 and 1 million barrels per day from about 3.8 million bpd.

Given that NITC's return to the market was seen as such a big event, why has reaction been so muted now that Iran is once again being cast out of the market?

German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said he would work with affected companies to try to "minimise the negative consequences" of the U.S. move, adding: "That means, it is concretely about damage limitation".

The American president's withdrawal, as well as increasing investments into alternative energy, sent prices soaring last week to their highest level since 2014, the NZ Herald reported. Such measures included sanctions targeting Iran's petroleum, petrochemical and automotive sectors and Iran's central bank.

Mideast and Iran overshadow EU-West Balkans summit
The EU is also unimpressed by Trump's decision to place tariffs on European steel and aluminium as part of his "America first" agenda.

Iranian oil is a lucrative buy for refiners as the Persian Gulf nation provides 90 days of credit for purchases, at least thrice the amount of time given by other producers.

President Trump announced today, May 8, 2018, that the United States would withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action ("JCPOA"), the Iran nuclear deal implemented in January 2016. While Trump's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal might be meant to show Kim Jong Un that the US president follows through with his threats, it may also reinforce fears that Washington's negotiations can not be taken seriously - and that Pyongyang still needs its nuclear deterrent to ensure its survival.

During the first round of sanctions when European Union joined the USA in imposing financial restrictions, India initially used a Turkish bank to pay Iran for the oil it bought but beginning February 2013 paid almost half of the oil import bill in rupees while keeping the remainder pending opening of payment routes. Otherwise, the price of crude will increase beyond OPEC's self-imposed limits. Even after the implementation of the JCPOA, U.S. persons remained prohibited from virtually all dealings with Iran; accordingly, the impact on U.S. persons from the withdrawal will largely be limited to non-U.S. entities owned or controlled by U.S. persons.

First, we need to roughly estimate what that change will be.

Fifth, it's a question of timing. As Trump acknowledged in another tweet, the Korea opening was in part facilitated by neighboring China, which joined other members of the UN Security Council in tightening economic sanctions against the Kim regime in spite of Beijing's long trading and political relationship with Pyongyang. Another timing factor relates to sanctions being phased in. The sanctions will be taking place at a time when OPEC-led production cuts have already tightened the supply situation. For instance, in the last 180 days he has sacked nine key personnel, including a former ExxonMobil chief and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

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